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智利銅產量將減少20萬噸 銅價或繼續維持高位

信息來源www.rodapunk.com | 發布時間2020年09月08日

智利礦業部長Baldo Prokurica周五表示,受新冠疫情影響,該國銅產量或將減少20萬噸,這大約占2019年該國銅產量的3.5%。


此外,他對智利國家銅業臨時關閉Chuquicamata銅礦的冶煉廠表示贊許。

就在前不久,Chuquicamata礦山一名叫做Jimmy Rojas Mondaca的工人因新冠病毒死亡。周天,一名叫做 Omar Manosalva的工人被報道于智利國家銅業旗下Ministro Hales礦山死亡。


周五,投資者對于供應端擾動的擔憂升級,倫銅一度漲逾1%,創下近5個月新高。


基本面方面,南美疫情還在繼續發酵,市場對礦端供應風險擔憂不減。且從國內冶煉廠了解到,受前期發運影響,6-7月份銅精礦供應短缺體現,煉廠維持低開工率運行,國內電解銅供給難見回升。


消費端,家電和汽車板塊均有超預期表現,但精廢價差重回 1500 元/噸以上,精銅桿消費受廢銅替代影響有所走弱,但總的來看,消費表現仍強勁,下游低升水補貨積極。本周電解銅三地庫存環比繼續減少 1.79 萬噸,國內現貨供應緊張,近兩周進口比價再次打開,本周保稅庫存重新減少 0.8 萬噸至 20.95 萬噸。受供給緊張影響,內外貿升水齊漲,預期短期仍將維持高位。


受國內需求強勁和海外經濟復蘇推動,本周LME庫存續降,全球庫存水平接近低位。宏觀資金面的推動疊加銅礦供應擔憂以及國內消費表現超預期,低庫存狀態下的持續去庫效應也將繼續帶給市場樂觀情緒,預計下周銅價將維持增長趨勢。

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